Ember Turkey Electricity Outlook: The New Balance Between Wind, Solar, and Coal

If we were to summarize the Turkish electricity market over the past few years in a single sentence, it would be that wind and solar are no longer merely supplementary sources but are now among the key factors reshaping the system’s balance. Ember’s Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026 report analyzes this transformation through both production data and the pipeline of coal, hydroelectric, and battery projects. This assessment was prepared as of April 18, 2026.

The report notes that by 2025, the combined share of wind and solar power in Turkey’s electricity generation reached 22%; in contrast, coal remains the largest source of electricity generation, accounting for 34% (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). These two figures set the tone for the entire report: the transition has begun, but the system has not yet fully broken free from its dependence on fossil fuels.

A New Milestone in Wind and Solar Energy

Ember reports that Turkey saw a record 4.8 GW of solar energy installations in 2023, with installations remaining close to this level over the following two years (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). This continuity demonstrates that solar energy is not merely a temporary boost to Turkey’s generation portfolio. According to the report, electricity generation from solar reached 18.4 TWh in 2023 and rose to 37.3 TWh in 2025, doubling over the two-year period (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026).

A similar milestone has been reached in the wind sector. The 1.9 GW of new wind capacity commissioned in 2025 marked the highest annual increase on record for Turkey (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). Wind and solar combined reached approximately 40 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2025; however, it is noted that approximately 8 GW of new wind and solar capacity must be commissioned each year to meet the 120 GW target by 2035 (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026).

The legal implications of this goal are clear. The investment environment must be designed not solely based on incentives or tender announcements, but in conjunction with permitting processes, grid connectivity, zoning and environmental permits, expropriation, land use, and financing documents. As installed renewable energy capacity increases, the quality of project contracts and administrative processes will become increasingly important.

A Comparison with Europe: Success, but Also a Long Way to Go

According to the report, solar power’s share of electricity generation in Turkey has approached approximately 11%, and together with wind power, the total share has reached 22% (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). This ratio places Turkey in a unique position among high-production countries in the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Ember notes that among the 16 countries in these regions with electricity production exceeding 25 TWh, no other country has a combined share of wind and solar power exceeding 20% (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026).

The European comparison, however, is less impressive. Among the 24 European countries with electricity production exceeding 25 TWh, Turkey ranks 15th in wind, 14th in solar, and 16th in renewable energy (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). The regional picture is strong; however, at the European level, there is still a significant area for improvement.

The issue here is not merely one of resource potential. Turkey has strong solar radiation, wind resources, and a history of hydroelectric power; however, this potential does not translate into actual production when transmission capacity, grid planning, permitting processes, and financing costs do not keep pace. Ember’s report should therefore be read not only as a technical energy report but also as an assessment of administrative and legal capacity.

Drought, Hydroelectric Power, and Natural Gas Dependence

One of the report’s most significant sections concerns the impact of drought on hydropower. Ember notes that the average electricity generation over the past 10 years at Turkey’s three largest hydropower plants—Atatürk, Karakaya, and Keban—was 29% lower than during the 1996–2005 period (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). This data illustrates that drought is not merely an issue of agricultural production or water management; it has direct consequences for the security of electricity supply and the cost of imports.

According to Ember, the drought-induced decline in hydroelectric generation results in an average annual cost of $1.8 billion in additional natural gas imports for Turkey when replaced by natural gas power plants (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). The policy response to this calculation is not limited to simply saying, “Let’s build more solar power.” The support of hydroelectric power plants with hybrid solar, the utilization of reservoir areas, the flexible allocation of interconnection capacity, and the diversification of the generation portfolio according to climate risk must be addressed more seriously.

Because there is a practical substitution relationship between hydroelectric power and natural gas, disruptions in precipitation patterns also affect prices, imports, the current account deficit, and supply security. For this reason, energy investment contracts must now include more carefully formulated provisions regarding meteorological risk, production forecasts, force majeure clauses, and revenue assumptions.

Coal: A Major Share in Production, High Dependence on Imports

The report notes that coal accounted for 34% of Turkey’s electricity generation in 2025 and that approximately two-thirds of coal-fired generation was produced using imported coal (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). Although no new coal-fired power plants have been commissioned in Turkey since 2022, coal continues to play a significant role in electricity production (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026).

Ember also assesses that the feed-in tariff to be applied to domestic coal-fired power plants during the 2026–2029 period could increase coal production (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). This issue is significant from an energy law perspective because support mechanisms not only provide revenue security for producers but also impact market prices, system flexibility, and the integration of renewable energy into the grid.

The decision to keep inflexible generation units online, particularly during hours when solar generation is high and demand remains relatively low, will be the subject of further discussion in terms of price formation and curtailment risks. This discussion is not merely technical; it is directly linked to generation licenses, support decisions, ancillary service obligations, imbalance costs, and interconnection agreements.

Battery Project Inventory: Duration Matters Just as Much as Capacity

Ember notes that the battery capacity allocated for wind and solar projects with storage in Turkey after 2022 stands at 33 GW (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). This capacity appears to exceed that of EU countries with high battery capacity in terms of both operational capacity and project pipeline; it is reported that this figure stands at around 12–13 GW in countries such as Germany and Italy (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026).

However, the report makes an important distinction here. The total storage capacity of wind and solar projects with storage in Turkey is around 37 GWh; this implies that the average storage duration is approximately 1.1 hours (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). Given that the average duration of batteries commissioned globally in 2025 is 2.5 hours, the extent to which Turkey’s project portfolio will be effective in terms of system flexibility warrants further examination (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026).

This distinction is very clear to investors. A project with a high MW rating may not generate the same level of market value if the duration is short. When it comes to ancillary services, price arbitrage, peak demand support, curtailment reduction, and grid security, it is not just the size of the battery that matters, but also its operational lifespan and market access.

Connection Capacity and Permitting Processes

In the policy recommendations section of the Ember report, it is clearly emphasized that Turkey must make substantial investments in its electricity grid to achieve its 2035 targets (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). The report also addresses the financing of grid investments, international financial institutions, and the allocation of interconnection capacity in relation to reaching 120 GW of wind and solar capacity (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026).

From an investor’s perspective, this is not merely an abstract public policy issue. Even if a project has excellent wind or solar resources, it will not translate into investment value if there is no grid connection capacity. When grid connection assessments, capacity allocation, pre-licensing, permitting processes, expropriation, and land rights are not advanced simultaneously, a project that appears technically sound may be put on hold commercially.

The report also addresses the importance of streamlining permitting processes for new wind and solar investments. It is noted that under the regulation adopted in 2025—commonly referred to as the “super permit”—permit processes, which can take up to four years for wind and two years for solar projects, are expected to be reduced to 18 months (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). The success of this target in practice should be closely monitored in terms of investors’ project timelines and financing closures.

Hybrid Solar, Floating Solar Power Plants, and Energy Diversification

Ember notes that there is at least 8 GW of economically viable hybrid solar potential at existing wind and hydroelectric power plants in Turkey (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). This suggestion can be interpreted as a means of preventing the loss of hydroelectric generation due to drought from being replaced solely by natural gas.

Hybrid power plants require more careful contract and permit design under energy law. Consistency must be established among the existing power plant’s grid connection rights, the installation of secondary sources, production metering, support mechanisms, land or reservoir usage rights, and financing documents. An investment decision based solely on technical capacity calculations without ensuring this consistency may lead to delays or disputes in practice.

The report also notes that source diversification can be achieved through different types of tenders, such as floating solar and offshore wind (Ember, Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026). Turkey needs to consider its renewable energy growth not only through onshore solar and onshore wind but also through new project types that can reduce grid and land pressure.

Conclusion: The Real Issue for Turkey Is Implementation Capacity

The Ember report reminds us that when reading about Turkey’s energy transition, we must consider both the positive news and the concerns that give cause for hesitation. Wind and solar power are growing strongly; hydropower is becoming more vulnerable to climate risks; coal production continues to rely on imported fuel; and while the pipeline of battery projects appears robust, the timeline and pace of deployment must be closely monitored.

This table yields the same result for investors, industrial companies, and institutions managing energy portfolios. Making decisions in the energy market is no longer just about forecasting prices. Unless licenses, interconnections, permits, financing, power purchase agreements, grid flexibility, and climate risk are considered together, the project’s true legal and commercial profile cannot be understood.

To access the original report: You can download the PDF version of the " Turkey Electricity Outlook 2026 " report published by Ember here, and view the online analysis page here.